FX option prices remain cautious of the increased FX volatility risk to GBP due to Thursday’s proposed policy announcement by the Bank Of England (ASX:BoE).
These prices still fall short of the levels witnessed prior to the August 3 and June 22 UK policy adjustments.
The foreign exchange option market’s estimation of future FX volatility, known as ‘implied volatility’, presents a trading window if it differs from actual FX volatility.
An increase in implied volatility linked with the U.S policy announcement late on Wednesday has already been noted, yet overall the prices remain somewhat subdued when juxtaposed with the values seen before the UK interest rate decisions in August and June.
The figure for overnight GBP/USD implied volatility is presently 14.0, contrasted against Tuesday’s 8.5 before the Federal Reserve and Bank Of England announcements were factored in.
Comparatively, overnight EUR/GBP has not been significantly impacted by Wednesday’s Fed announcement.
Its overnight expiry implied volatility is 9.5, up from 6.5 before the BoE announcement - a premium break-even of 35 GBP pips from 24 GBP pips.
Despite this, it marked a lower 11.0 implied volatility or 40 GBP pips before last week’s ECB rate decision and was more than 16.0 (58 GBP pips) prior to the August and June MPC announcements.
(Note - Richard Pace, market analyst, provided these analysis.
His views are individual and not representative of any organization.)